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The Diplomat (16 May 2023)

Joseph Webster

Beijing is trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe, hedging against an unlikely but possible Russian military collapse.

The war in Ukraine is entering an uncertain but consequential phase. Ukrainian forces are preparing to mount a long-awaited counteroffensive that could see significant Russian military defeats, a costly setback to Ukraine, or a modified version of the status quo. Beijing is grappling with this uncertainty by expanding its diplomatic involvement and positioning itself to stanch a Russian military defeat or, perhaps more likely, opportunistically seize on Western political trends to drive wedges between the transatlantic alliance.

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